Do you think the US economy will recover from the economic effects of this COVID-19 ordeal?

2020-05-13 12:19 pm

回答 (9)

2020-05-13 12:20 pm
Yes, The Almighty President Trump will lead us thru 2024
2020-05-13 12:22 pm
of course, the usa has been through much worse
2020-05-13 12:21 pm
Of course it will.
2020-05-13 4:36 pm
There is nothing to fear. The economy does not collapse. Americans keep fighting. And it will recover to the new normal level very soon.
2020-05-13 1:58 pm
All economies have slowdown in growth over time. US GDP growth is pretty low compared to much of the world, China's is almost three times the US's. But the US is still an exceptional case. Take a look at the European Union. According to the World Bank, the GDP of the entire European Union overall declined between 2008 and 2018. After the 2008 crash, growth rates have been slow and erratic, with basically no overall growth in over a decade.

US is clearly in an exceptional position because its place as a global superpower. It has much greater control over world markets, especially being the world reserve currency. But there's no reason to expect this trend of constantly declining GDP growth won't eventually catch up to the US.

"The coronavirus" didn't collapse the US economy, over 70% of economists were predicting the US economy would crash by 2021 anyways. The coronavirus just helped set off the inevitable crash sooner, but don't forget the US economy crashes every 7-8 years on its own no matter what.

The reason the economy constantly crashes and the reason GDP growth is always on the decline over long periods is caused by the same thing, and that's the very nature of the economic system itself.

In very simple terms:

1. All businesses are competing.
2. To defeat their competition, they need to have the lowest price.
3. Prices can't be lower than cost of production or they'd go bankrupt.
4. Businesses thus strive to lower cost of production.
5. Cost of production is lowered by investing in new technology where the cost of that new technology improves labor efficiency to such a significant degree that it more than outweighs the cost of technology itself.
6. Once this business lowers prices, all other businesses must either (1) go bankrupt, or (2) adopt the same technology.
7. Once all businesses adopt the same technology, producing the commodity cheaper becomes the norm, and thus its price drops.
8. Therefore the prices of commodities is constantly declining (every new technology eventually becomes consumer affordable given enough time).
9. Therefore the size, complexity, and scale of industry is always increasing (technology is always progressing).
10. Lower prices means lower profit.
11. Higher investment into industry also cuts into profits.
12. Therefore the profits businesses owners can extract from their business in proportion to their cost of production extract tends to decline over time.

The fact profits are always  declining means, eventually, small businesses will go bust who can't keep up with new technology. This leads to unemployment which suppresses demand, lower demand means lower sales, and thus profits, for other businesses, and they go bust as well. It's a feedback loop that crashes the economy.

Note that 12 says "in proportion". If profits is "s" and cost of production is "c + v" then the rate of profits is "s/(c + v)".  Since this is a ratio, the absolute value of s could increase while proportion might lower. This might happen if a business expands, if it simply grows larger in size. 

Meaning, a concentration of industry ("monopolization") can help the economy recover. And this a rule of thumb for any economic crash. They are always followed by monopolization. Big businesses are able to weather the storm since they have larger absolute profits they can cut into, even if their rate of profits is just low as everyone else's. These big businesses can absorb the smaller, reduce unemployment, get their industry up and running again, and eventually revitalize the economy.

However, monopolization only temporarily fixes. Those new, larger businesses who have successfully consumed their competition will now be faced with this same problem, a falling rate of profits, that will too eventually make them go bust.

This leads to overall GDP growth slowing over time as industry becomes less and less profitable. Instead, businesses shift their interest into finance capital. Much of finance capital is basically just "moving money around", it creates bubbles, but no new value, so shifting investment away from industry and into finance tends to correlate with a decline in GDP growth.

The European Union never recovered from 2008. Will the US recover from this crash? Who knows, maybe. Again, US has that advantage of controlling the world's markets and being the reserve currency, which allows it to manipulate its money in ways that no other countries can do.

The biggest threat right now to the US is China. Simply because China's economy is growing faster than the US's, it threatens the US's privileged spot, and without it, it'd probably end up like the European Union, which seems like it inevitable fate at this point.

It's hard to say for sure, the only thing that is certain right now is the US is massively on a downwards spin. Its growth is slowing to a crawl and now crashing while China simply does economics better.
2020-05-13 12:20 pm
It will take a very long time but eventually probably
2020-05-14 9:47 am
Some segments  will come  back bigger and stronger, some will go back to being at the same level, and others may take a long time to recover, if they ever do.
Only time will tell
2020-05-14 8:39 am
The economy was in trouble before the virus struck. Nature has responded to our pollution and exploitation. We need to change and get into balance with Nature or expect more repercussions due to our harmful ways.
2020-05-13 12:32 pm
The only thing that will fix it is an all-out war with China..


收錄日期: 2021-05-01 22:35:44
原文連結 [永久失效]:
https://hk.answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20200513041923AA02yt1

檢視 Wayback Machine 備份