In a casino game based on the standard gambler's ruin problem, the gambler and the dealer EACH start with 20 tokens.?

2018-08-22 7:14 pm
更新1:

One token is bet on at each play. The game continues until one player has no further tokens. It is decreed that the probability that any gambler is ruined is 0.55 to protect the casino’s profit. What should be the probability that the gambler wins at each play be? Give answer to 4 decimal places.

更新2:

Pls explain with working and formula used in detail. Thxs I really need to understand this Gambler's Ruin Problem. Appreciated.

回答 (2)

2018-08-22 8:54 pm
✔ 最佳答案
.45 = (1 -(p/q)^20)(1 -(p/q)^40)
.45 = 1/(1 +p/q)^20
.45(p/q)^20 = .55
(p/q)^20 = .55/.45 = 11/9
p/q = (11/9)^(1/20) = 1.01008
This is based on probability of ending penniless.
1/(1 +1.01008) = .4975
49.75% is the gambler's chance of winning an event.

Note that 49.75% plus 50.25% shown in the other result = 100%. Since they have equal starting amounts, the one with the advantage will more often bankrupt thd other.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_ruin#Unfair_coin_flipping

p = ?
q = ?
n1 = 20
n2 = 20

We know that P1 = 0.45

0.45 = (1 - (p/q)^20) / (1 - (p/q)^40)
0.45 = (1 - (p/q)^20) / ((1 - (p/q)^20) * (1 + (p/q)^20))
0.45 = 1 / (1 + (p/q)^20)

p/q = k

0.45 = 1 / (1 + k^20)
9/20 = 1 / (1 + k^20)
20/9 = 1 + k^20
20/9 - 1 = k^20
11/9 = k^20
(11/9)^(1/20) = k
1.0100840394552964420805360402189... = k
1.0100840394552964420805360402189... = p/q
q * 1.0100840394552964420805360402189... = p

p + q = 1
q * 1.0100840394552964420805360402189... + q = 1
q * (1.0100840394552964420805360402189 + 1) = 1
q * (2.0100840394552964420805360402189) = 1
q = 1 / 2.0100840394552964420805360402189
q = 0.49749163735014057665957153582118

1 - q = p
1 - 0.49749163735014057665957153582118... = p
p = 0.50250836264985942334042846417882....

The chances of the player winning any single time is 50.2508%, or 0.5025


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