Why before a hurricane hits, the news NEVER tells you IF the storm will hit?

2018-04-29 12:11 am
Why before a hurricane hits, the news never tells you IF the storm will hit but rather they just say "evacuation orders issued, etc", without any real announcement that the storm will actually make landfall?

回答 (3)

2018-04-29 12:26 am
✔ 最佳答案
That's because it's impossible to say if it will. The problem with the weather is that it can change in almost an instant which is why when you watch the weather forecast, most of the time it'll be wrong (and lot's of people complain about it).

There is no saying whether a hurricane will take the path that was calculate to predict, it could calm down, it could change it's direction, it could get worse, etc.. nobody who knows, but it's better to be prepared and safe even if nothing happens.

->

The Butterfly Effect

In chaos theory, the butterfly effect is the sensitive dependence on initial conditions in which a small change in one state of a deterministic nonlinear system can result in large differences in a later state. ... A very small change in initial conditions had created a significantly different outcome.

^— In other words, the smallest change in the weather for whatever reason at one side of the planet changes, the whole weather system on the opposite side changes.

Example: It was forecast sunny weather in America, in 3 hours. 1 hour later, there was a 0.4 degree change in Temperature in China causing a change in atmospheric pressure. 2 hours later, it started to rain heavily in America and continued for several hours with no sunny spells.

(That was only an example but it shows how the weather can change its course than what was predicated.

i.e: If that change in China didn't happen, it'd have been sunny as predicated.
2018-04-29 12:13 am
Because weather forecasts are predictions based on the available evidence. They can't know for certain when and where a hurricane will hit.
2018-04-29 12:38 am
Because these things can turn on a dime and suddenly veer in a different direction.


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