If cold nuclear fusion becomes reality, which is quite likely to happen in 10~20 years time, we will have huge amount of cheap energy. Will the oil price drop significantly and will massive oil companies go out of business. Also, would that have far reaching political influence as a lot of conflicts are related to energy resources.
Please share your thoughts on what would happen when cold unclear fusion works.
Cold nuclear fusion effect on oil industry?
2014-02-01 11:27 pm
回答 (2)
2014-02-01 11:59 pm
two thoughts on that.
1. there is no know law of physics by which cold fusion is capable of occurring. thus your 20 year time line to discovery and practical application is suspect. it is and remains a "someday" technology of science fiction.
2. there is a very good reason why petroleum products are used for vehicles and in particular aircraft. that is the very favorable weight to power ratio. it is not really a factor of price. if price were the only aspect, then all cars would run on free solar energy. If your cold fusion device weighs in at 10 tons because of say lead shielding, how would you adapt that to a small vehicle? it would be great for say central electric power generation that can be delivered to consumers by wires, but it might not be a practical device to have around the house.
1. there is no know law of physics by which cold fusion is capable of occurring. thus your 20 year time line to discovery and practical application is suspect. it is and remains a "someday" technology of science fiction.
2. there is a very good reason why petroleum products are used for vehicles and in particular aircraft. that is the very favorable weight to power ratio. it is not really a factor of price. if price were the only aspect, then all cars would run on free solar energy. If your cold fusion device weighs in at 10 tons because of say lead shielding, how would you adapt that to a small vehicle? it would be great for say central electric power generation that can be delivered to consumers by wires, but it might not be a practical device to have around the house.
2014-02-02 2:09 pm
That is an excellent answer. Not only cold fusion, but other alternatives are unlikely to prove superior for cars and aircraft in the next 20 years, so no out of business and cheap oil are unlikely for the next 20 years, but we may be surprised. From past history big ticket items typically take more than 20 years to evolve, except rather minor transitions such as Kindle to Ipod, unless it is government mandated such as high definition TV, which does not seem to be a big improvement to me.
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