Suppose you are a leader of a political party. You want to improve vote and seat shares in a federal parliamentary elections. A consultant proposed to run a larger number of ethnic minority candidates as voters want to see more diversity in their representatives. To demonstrate his claim empirically, the consultant conducted a field experiment with cooperation from your party. In the last election, he had asked your party’s local organizations to field an ethnic-minority candidate in their electoral districts (ridings). The local party organizations in sixteen districts chose to field such candidates. Your party obtained, on average, 60% vote share across the sixteen districts and won parliamentary seats in fifteen, or 95%, of the sixteen districts, while the average vote share of your party in other districts was 40% and the party won only 35% of all these districts. The consultant therefore concluded that running an ethnic-minority candidate increased your party’s vote and seat shares.
What is the most serious threat to the validity of this research design? Identify the threat, discuss why that threat is problematic, and suggest how that threat may be overcome in a perfect world (don’t worry too much about the feasibility of your proposal here; discuss an ideal situation).