~Probability ~

2013-10-17 12:10 am
1.A movie rating company classifies movies as good, average, or poor. Movies which are rated by this company fall into these three groups in the proportions 20%, 50%, and 30%, respectively. Base on historical data, the probability a “good” movie will become a blockbuster is 0.7, the probability a “medium” movie will become a blockbuster is 0.5, and the probability a “poor” movie will become a blockbuster is 0.1. The company is now rating the movie “Ironman 4”
(a) Present the above information with a tree diagram.

(b) According to the movie rating company, what is the probability that
“Ironman 4” is a blockbuster?

(c) Given that “Ironman 4” is a blockbuster, what is the probability that it is an
average movie?


2.A computer company finds that the time taken to complete a backup job has a normal distribution with mean 50 minutes and standard deviation 10 minutes.
(a) What percentage of jobs takes less than 35 minutes to finish?

(b) What is the probability that the time taken to complete a backup job is
between 35 minutes and 60 minutes?

(c) Find the time t such that 10% of the backup job has a longer duration than t.
更新1:

回答者: 50418129 ( 博士級 1 級 ) 0.15% 35 2.35% 40 13.5% 45 34% 50 34% 55 13.5% 60 2.35% 65 0.15% 點算出來?

回答 (1)

2013-10-17 12:30 am
✔ 最佳答案
(1b)

the required probability
= 20% x 0.7 + 50% x 0.5 + 30% x 0.1
= 0.42

(1c)

P(average | blockbuster)
= P(average and blockbuster) / P(blockbuster)
= 50% x 0.5 / 0.42
= 25 / 42

(2)

0.15% 35 2.35% 40 13.5% 45 34% 50 34% 55 13.5% 60 2.35% 65 0.15%

(a) 0.15%

(b) 2.35% + 13.5% + 34% + 34% + 13.5% = 97.35%

(c) between 55 ~ 60 min
參考: knowledge


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