simple distribution

2013-03-03 10:32 am
the number of eggs laid by a kind of rare bird in its breeding season may be considered a random variable X with the probability distribution given by P(X=0) = 0.2
P(X=1) = 0.24 P(X=2) = 0.32 P(X=3) = 0.24

the expert observes that the probability of the survival of a baby bird is dependent on the number of eggs x laid per pair of adult birds.

1 egg : survival = 0.9, 2 eggs : survival = 0.7, 3 eggs : survival = 0.4

a) let W be the number of baby birds surviving per pair of adult birds. then W = 0 denotes that a pair of adult birds do not lay egg, or the eggs laid are all dead. Find the probability distribution of W.

Answers : P(W=0) = 0.30464, P(W=1) = 0.45408, P(W=2) = 0.22592,
P(W=3) = 0.01536


Please explain how you count the probabilities, thanks.

回答 (1)

2013-03-03 12:01 pm
✔ 最佳答案
P(W = 0)
= P(X = 0) + P(X = 1 and W = 0) + P(X = 2 and W = 0) + P(X = 3 and W = 0)
= 0.2 + 0.24 x (1 - 0.9) + 0.32 x (1 - 0.7)² + 0.24 x (1 - 0.4)³
= 0.2 + 0.024 + 0.0288 + 0.05184
= 0.30464

P(W = 1)
= P(X = 1 and W = 1) + P(X = 2 and W = 1) + P(X = 3 and W = 1)
= 0.24 x 0.9 + 0.32 x 2C1 x 0.7 x (1 - 0.7) + 0.24 x 3C1x 0.4 x (1 - 0.4)²
= 0.216 + 0.1344 + 0.10368
= 0.45408

P(W = 2)
= P(X = 2 and W = 2) + P(X = 3 and W = 2)
= 0.32 x 0.7² + 0.24 x 3C2x 0.4² x (1 - 0.4)
= 0.1568 + 0.06912
= 0.22592

P(W = 3)
= P(X = 3 and W = 3)
= 0.24 x 0.4³
= 0.01536
參考: micatkie


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