(急!!!)F5 Probability

2013-01-27 5:21 am
我有2題想問!!!!!(我想要過程)
qs1: a box has 9 cards numbered 21to29, nick and margaret take turn to draw a card from the box at random, and who draws the card with a prime number first will win.
If the cards drawn are put back into the box, and nick draws a card first, find the probilities of the following event happening.
A) nick will win
B) Margaret will win
ANS: A) 9/16 B)7/16

qs2 in a lucky draw box, there are fifty $10 coins and ten $1 coins. Patrick draws two coin from the box at ranbom.
Find the probability that the difference in the total values of the coins between the first draw and the second draw is more than $5.

th ans is 27605/62658

回答 (1)

2013-01-27 9:29 am
✔ 最佳答案
1.
A)
N : Nick draws a card with a prime number
n : Nick draws a card without a prime number
M : Margaret draws a card with a prime number
m : Margaret draws a card without a prime number

Among the 9 cards, there are 2 cards with prime numbers (23, 29).
P(N) = P(M) = 2/9
P(n) = P(m) = 1 - (2/9) = 7/9

P(Nick will win)
= P(N) + P(nmN) + P(nmnmN) + P(nmnmnmN) + ...... to ∞terms
= (2/9) + (7/9)²(2/9) + (7/9)⁴(2/9)+ (7/9)⁶(2/9)+ ...... to ∞ terms
= (2/9) + (49/81)(2/9) + (49/81)²(2/9) + (49/81)³(2/9)+ ...... to ∞ terms

This is the sum of a geometric sequence to ∞terms with first term a = 2/9 and common ratio r = 49/81.
Sum of a geometric sequence to ∞ terms = a / (1 - r)

Hence, P(Nick will win)
= (2/9) / [1 - (49/81)]
= (2/9) / (32/81)
= (2/9) x (81/32)
= 9/16

B)
Method 1 :
P(Margaret will win)
= 1 - P(Nick will win)
= 1 - (9/16)
= 7/16

Method 2 :
P(Margaret will win)
= P(nM) + P(nmnM) + P(nmnmnM) + P(nmnmnmnM) + ...... to ∞ terms
= (7/9)(2/9) + (7/9)³(2/9) + (7/9)⁵(2/9)+ (7/9)⁷(2/9)+ ...... to ∞ terms
= (14/81) + (49/81)(14/81) + (49/81)²(14/81) + (49/81)³(14/81)+ ...... to ∞ terms

This is the sum of a geometric sequence to ∞terms with first term a = 14/81 and common ratio r = 49/81.

Hence, P(Margaret will win)
= (14/81) / [1 - (49/81)]
= (14/81) / (32/81)
= (14/81) x (81/32)
= 7/16


=====
2.
P($20 in one draw)
= P(two $10-coins)
= 50C2 / 60C2
= (50!/48!2!) / (60!/58!2!)
= (50 x 49) / (60 x 59)
= 245/354

P($11 in one draw)
= P($10-coin + one $1 coin)
= 50C1 x 10C1 / 60C2
= (50!/49!1!) x (10!/9!1!) / (60!/58!2!)
= (50 x 10) / (30 x 59)
= 50/177

P($2 in one draw)
= P(two $2-coins)
= 10C2 / 60C2
= (10!/8!2!) / (60!/58!2!)
= (10 x 9) / (60 x 59)
= 9/354

The required probability
= P($20, $11) + P($11, $20) + P($20, $2) + P($2, $20) + P($11, $2) + P($2, $11)
= 2 x P($20,$11) + 2 x P($20, 2) + 2 x P($11, $2)
= 2 x (245/354) x (50/177) + 2 x (245/354) x (9/354) + 2 x (50/177) x (9/354)
= (24500/62658) + (2205/62658) + (900/62658)
= 27605/62658
參考: 土扁


收錄日期: 2021-04-13 19:16:20
原文連結 [永久失效]:
https://hk.answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20130126000051KK00347

檢視 Wayback Machine 備份