F.7 Probability [20points]

2011-09-29 7:20 pm
Two urns contain some coloured balls.
Urn A contains 12 balls: 8 are black, 4 are white.
Urn B contains 15 balls: 9 are black , 6 are white.
A ball is drawn at random from urn A to placed in urn B.
A ball is thendrawn at random from urn B, which now contains sixteen balls.
What is the probability that the ball drawn from urn B is black?
Ans : 29/48

Q: Given that the ball drawn from urn B was black, what is the probability that the ball drawn from urn A was also black?

Ans: 20/29

回答 (2)

2011-09-29 7:32 pm
✔ 最佳答案
1)

P(The ball drawn from urn B is black)= P(A black ball is drawn from urn A to placed in urn B and then a black ball drawn from urn B)
+
P(A white ball is drawn from urn A to placed in urn B and then a black ball drawn from urn B)= (8/12)(10/16) + (4/12)(9/16)= 29/48

2)

P(The ball drawn from urn A was also black given that the ball drawn from urn B was black)= P(A black ball is drawn from urn A to placed in urn B and then a black ball drawn from urn B) / P(The ball drawn from urn B is black)= (8/12)(10/16) / (29/48)= 20/29
2011-09-29 7:34 pm
(a) P(the ball from urn B is black)

= P(the ball from urn B is black|the ball from urn A is black)P(the ball from urn A is black) + P(the ball from urn B is black|the ball from urn A is white)P(the ball from urn A is white)

= (10/16)(8/12) + (9/16)(4/12)

= 29/48

(b) (10/16)(8/12)/[(10/16)(8/12) + (9/16)(4/12)]

= 20/29


收錄日期: 2021-04-21 22:23:05
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