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The probability of getting a disease is 0.01. A clinical Test can be used to test whether a person has the disease. The probability that a person has this disease and test positive is 0.98. The probability that a person does not have the disease and test negative is 0.95.
If a person is tested positice, and test again with another positive result, what is the probability he actually has the disease.
Probability Question
2011-09-28 12:18 am
回答 (1)
2011-09-28 6:04 am
✔ 最佳答案
The probability that an infected person gets 2 positive results=0.98×0.98The probability that a non-infected person gets 2 positive results=0.05×0.05The overall probability to get 2 positive results=0.98×0.98×0.01+0.05×0.05×0.99Probability that the person is infected=(0.98×0.98×0.01)÷(0.98×0.98×0.01+0.05×0.05×0.99)=0.7951
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