probability

2011-03-18 5:54 am
A bag contains 50 fair coins, but one has 2 heads. Coins are drawn from bag without replacement at random and then tossed. If 5 heads turn up in first 5 tosses, probability of tossing the sixth coin with 2 heads. (Ans=1/50)
Why not 1/55?
P (sixth coin has 2 heads | first 5 coins get 5 heads)
=[(49/50)(48/49)(47/48)(46/47)(45/46)(1/2)^5(1/45)]/[(49/50)(48/49)(47/48)(46/47)(45/46)(1/2)^5 + 5(49/50)(48/49)(47/48)(46/47)(1/2)^4(1/46)]= 1/55
更新1:

why not ? P (sixth coin with 2 heads | 5 heads turn up in first 5 tosses) = [ P (sixth coin with 2 heads∩5 heads turn up in first 5 tosses)]/ P (5 heads turn up in first 5 tosses) = {[(49C5)/(50C5)](1/2)^5(1/45)} / {[(49C5)/(50C5)](1/2)^5 + 5[(49C4)/(50C4)](1/2)^4(1/46)} = 1/55

回答 (1)

2011-03-18 6:15 am
✔ 最佳答案
P(sixth coin with 2 heads | 5 heads turn up in first 5 tosses)

= [(49C5)/(50C5)][1/45]

= [(49!45!)/(44!50!)](1/45)

= 1/50


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