✔ 最佳答案
Ball-park figures for: 大約數字 (e.g. rounded to thousands):
(1) Levels of business that might be expected: 可預测的營業額
(2) Selling price: 售價
(3) Revenue over time: 預测總收入 (例如第一至第五年)。
The objective of this case is to see how much research you do, how well you analyse the information, and how well you apply the information to support your numbers.
In item (1), you don't just guess what the sales volume will be, you have to say why, for example, you think you can sell 50 birthday cakes a day, if your venture were to open a specialty birthday-cake shop. Various factors need to be considered, including the location, population density of the neighborhood, age, flow of shoppers, your product, competitors' products, etc.
One way of calculating the estimate is:
# of people who live or work in the area around your shop = 500,000;
Average # of pople who have birthday every day = 500000 / 365 = about 1300. You estimate that half of the people will have a birthday cake for their birthday, and there will be 10 cake shops in the area, then each shop will have an average demand of 65 cakes per day. So your estimate of selling 50 cakes a day is not a wild guess, but estimated with convincing supporting data.
Similarly, in item (2), you need to know how much birthday cakes are selling now, and how much customers are willing to pay for your cakes, and what the competitors may do that may affect your pricing etc.
Once you have (1) and (2), you can calculate the expected $ revenue (sales volume multiplied by price), but you also need to project the changes over the next few years, and taking into consideration known changes in the area where your business will be, such as transportation, new offices, shopping centres, residential areas etc., and also the effect of of business growth, trends of using birthday cake for celebrations etc. Then, of course you will need to consider the inflation factor, because prices will go up as the costs increase.
The more convincing your case is, the higher the marks.