The Rays. They are playing before the Reds and they are playing on the road. I think the Reds are going to win at least one game at home before bowing out of the series.
The Rays play their next game before the Reds, so they have a better chance of getting eliminated first, I'm not necessarily saying they will I'm just saying they have the better chance.
Reds. They are already down 2-0 and the Phllies are just no match 4 them. First of all their pitching is way better with Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels against Edinson Volquez, Bronson Arroyo, and Travis Wood. Also the Phillies have solid startes 1-8 in the lineup with Rollins, Palonco Victorino, Utley, Howard, Werth, Ibanez, and Ruiz while the reds really only have Joey Votto who is very good and Jay Bruce. I will however take the reds bullpen over the Phillies because no one in the Phillies bullpen has been solid all year.