applied probability

2009-11-21 7:25 pm
In a group of 16 people, a person tells a rumour to TWO recipients which are chosen randomly from the 15people other than the speaker at each repetition, and the rumour is repeated ONCE by the first two recipients, find the probability that no person hears it twice.

回答 (1)

2009-11-21 8:00 pm
✔ 最佳答案
After the person told the rumour, there are 3 persons who heard about it and 13 person who had not.
There is an uncertainty in the question.
In common sense, we have to make the assumption here: the 2 persons will not tell back to the initiator as well as to each other, i.e. they have only 13 people to choose from to tell the rumour.
There are 13C2 = 78 ways for one person to choose his recipient.
There are in total 78 * 78 = 6084 ways for the 2 persons to choose the recipients.
There are 13C4 = 715 ways to choose 4 different persons so there will be no repetition.
Therefore the probability of no person hears it twice
= 715 / 6084
= 55 / 468
= 0.1175
If the the 2 persons simply blindly choose the recipients, each has 15C2 = 105 choices.
Total number of ways for the two to choose the recipients
= 105 * 105 = 11025
The number of ways that the 4 people chosen will hear the rumour only once is again 13C4 = 715
Under such situation the required probability
= 715 / 11025
= 0.06485


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