translation to english! urgent

2009-06-01 12:10 am
聯匯對港重如山 形勢若變須變通
摩根士丹利經濟師任永欣指出,長遠港元與人民幣掛鈎更具意義,隨着本港同內地經貿不斷密切,長期而言港元將被人民幣邊緣化。這個觀點明顯與其父親——金管局總裁任志剛打對台。任總作為聯匯的堅定捍衞者,力言可見將來看不到港元掛鈎人民幣的可能性,但他並不反對理性的討論問題。其實,就聯匯的爭議,不是他們父女意見相左的事,而是市場各有理據的交鋒。
聯匯可以說是讓人愛恨交加的機制,從主流角度而言,過去四分一世紀本港依靠這套機制,使金融體系屹立不倒,是其值得愛惜之處;同時,每當金融危機降臨,國際市場風雲變色,聯匯都會局限本港應對的靈活性,是其可恨之處。總體而言,聯匯利大於弊或功大於過。這是過往的歷史早有定論的,現時再激起爭論是因為形勢生變,尤其是金融海嘯發生後,形勢更瀕大變,翻起這筆舊帳亦是正常的事情。
任總力撐聯匯的理據,是本港與美國的經濟盛衰循環同步性較高,同時人民幣並非儲備貨幣,亦非自由兌換貨幣。然而,這情況雖然是過去的情勢、現在的情勢,但未必是將來的情勢,更不是永遠的情勢。所謂掛鈎人民幣更具意義及港元被邊緣化,雖不是短期發生的事態,卻是廣為預期的趨勢,並非無的放矢。
事實上,任總所持理據已呈現逆轉迹象,就盛衰循環同步性而言,隨着與內地的經濟融合,盛衰循環勢必強化與內地同步;同時人民幣非儲備貨幣,不能自由兌換,也隨着加速國際化發生着變化。任總理據縱是堅冰,也有消融一日,可以說,掛鈎人民幣,甚至像一些專家所說整合人民幣,不是不着邊際的事,而是時間問題而已。
的確,過去四分一世紀絕大部分時間,聯匯變動說像市場信心的毒藥,成為天大的忌諱,任總的理據也不動如山。但近期在危機衝擊下,聯匯不再是鐵板一塊,有了些微鬆動:其一,○五年「任三招」優化聯匯,將港匯定於七點七五至七點八五區間,不再固守七點八死線;其二,去年十月本港一改美息調整後跟進慣常做法,單方面減貼現窗利率一厘,引起美國傳媒揣測鋪路同人民幣掛鈎。有了搞小動作的前科,日後為順應時勢,機緣適合出現大動作也非不可理喻。
市場很難相信,聯匯百年不變,因為世道在變。金融海嘯後可見的趨勢是,美元隨着美國「雙赤」難填,量化寬鬆政策推動印鈔,未來注定長線貶值,甚至有損儲備貨幣地位;而另一邊人民幣加快國際化,爭搶貿易貨幣地位。恰恰朝任總理據反方向而行,所以有人提出掛鈎人民幣,不是有心同甚麼人過不去,而是識時務為據。摩根士丹利早在○七年十月,就曾超前預測最快二○一二年港元掛鈎人民幣,不無急進之嫌。
諾獎得主克魯格曼說,有生之年人民幣不會成為主要貨幣。但金融海嘯極大改變全球經濟格局,雖然美國的超級大國未動搖,美元的國際地位難取代,但變化確實開始了。港府從維繫港元信心角度出發,不欲聯匯備受猜疑,但不能因此閉目塞聽,無視形勢生變,有必要研究聯匯的變通,港元掛鈎人民幣或多種貨幣,甚至自由浮動的利弊,以香港最大利益為依歸,而不是抱殘守缺。
金管局總裁任志剛卸任交接時期,乘人事變動,流言定多,但新人事體制未嘗不是少些思想包袱,是廣開思路,尋求定位或變通應對的時機。重要的是所作決定真能體現香港最大利益,要合時宜又不盲動,不能靠庸官運籌於密室,而要充分集思廣益,拿出大魄力、大智慧來。


thanksss!!

回答 (2)

2009-06-01 1:40 am
✔ 最佳答案
the link on the situation in Hong Kong heavy like a mountain to the modifications shall become
Morgan Stanley Economist rencheng yongxin pointed out that, in the long Hong Kong dollar and Renminbi hook more meaningful, with the Hong Kong Economic and trade continued to closely with the Mainland, Hong Kong dollar will be the long term RMB borderization.This view clearly with their father — — the HKMA, Mr Joseph Yam playing on Taiwan.Mr Yam as the linked exchange rate of soialism safeguading, urged the foreseeable future do not see the possibility of RMB in Hong Kong dollar hook, but he did not oppose the rational discussion questions.in fact, in respect of the linked exchange rate of controversy, is not their father and daughter conflictingopinions thing, but rather, each with one of the clash.
the linked exchange rate can be said that make people love hate mainstream mechanism, from the point of view, in the past quarter - century Hong Kong to rely on such a mechanism to allow the financial system had, it is worth treasure; at the same time, whenever the financial crisis comes, the international market xingbo chromotropic, students'coping will be limited in Hong Kong is its flexibility, hateful.generally speaking, Warley disadvantages or work is greater than before.This is a past history of the early conclusion, then stirred controversy is because the situation, especially after the financial tsunami and those of large, this old debt is also normal.
Mr Yam force bracing link, it is Hong Kong and the United States economy to the vicissitudes of circulative elileptic higher, at the same time reserve currency renminbi is not, but also non - convertibility of currency.However, this situation, although it is now past pakistanand, pakistanand, but not necessarily in the future pakistanand, pakistanand is not always.the so-called hook RMB more meaningful and HK $ peripheralized, broughttogether short-term occurred on Hong Kong is widely expected trends, not their own sakes.


2009-05-31 17:41:23 補充:
in fact, Mr Yam held by the rationale has been rendered observvation, circulative signs elileptic for the purposes of the rise and fall, as with the Mainland economy is bound to the vicissitudes of the loop fusion, strengthening

2009-05-31 17:41:38 補充:
and the Mainland synchronization; at the same time, non - reserve currency renminbi cannot renmiubi, also accelerated the internationalization of

2009-05-31 17:41:45 補充:
things.Directors as far as tomicus is ice, there are also ablation 1 can be said that RMB, or even like hook some experts said the integration of the Renminbi, not far away, but a matter of time.

2009-05-31 17:42:07 補充:
Indeed, in the past quarter century the vast majority of time, changes in the said poisons as market confidence, become a day, Mr Yam justification for it.but under the impact of recent crisis, the link is no longer so rigid, with slightly

2009-05-31 17:42:14 補充:
loose: first, 2005, three "optimization of the linked exchange rate, ganghui is scheduled to 7.75 to seven, no longer rest on its 85 interval 17.8 deadline;
Secondly, last October in Hong Kong a beauty coupon after adjusting for follow

2009-05-31 17:42:21 補充:
up the usual practice, a unilateral reduction of the discount window interest rate 1%, å­ media speculation to pave the way with the RMB hook.There was a courtroom suspect in the future to offer great opportunities is suitable for action is not impossible.

2009-05-31 17:42:51 補充:
market is very hard to believe, one hundred years as world change.the financial tsunami visible trend is, the US dollar as the United States - latosolic "difficult to fill in, quantitative lenient policy to promote printing, the devaluation of destiny - scanninglaser cheapby,

2009-05-31 17:43:01 補充:
and even reserve currency position; on one side and grab the RMB to speed up the internationalization of trade, monetary position.precisely towards Directors according to the reverse direction, so some people suggested that hook is not .

2009-05-31 17:43:06 補充:
the Renminbi, with whom we can't get through, but rather in the days.Morgan Stanley as early as October 2007, Super-leading forecast fastest 2012 and the Hong Kong dollar hook, not without radical RMB

2009-05-31 17:43:29 補充:
Nobel Laureate in krugmen said that the lifetime of the Renminbi will not become a major currencies.but the financial tsunami great changes in global economic pattern, although the United States of superpower is not shaken, the

2009-05-31 17:43:39 補充:
US dollar's international status, but difficult to replace the changes are you sure you started.the Government from maintaining confidence in Hong Kong dollar, do not wish to link a prolific writer, suspicion, but we cannot therefore ignore

2009-05-31 17:43:45 補充:
dozing Senjur, listen to the situation, it is necessary to study the link, the Hong Kong dollar hook RMB or in multiple currencies, or even a free floating pros and cons of the best interests of Hong Kong, instead of change.

2009-05-31 17:44:01 補充:
the HKMA, Mr Joseph Yam, handover period by retiring staffing changes, many rumors, but the new personnel system is less ideological burden, is seeking to diversify their ideas, or modifications to students'coping and post-radiotherapeutic.

2009-05-31 17:44:07 補充:
It is important for their decisions really reflects the best interests of Hong Kong, nor to timely blind reactions, cannot rely on application to the mediocre officers, and to fully room'mysteries session.pot, took out the great vigour, big intelligent.

2009-05-31 17:46:34 補充:
以上翻譯(grammar, vocab)可能有些不對,但大致上是可以的,可作參考。
2009-06-01 5:51 am
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