你哋認為恆指(依家成18000以上)最多會下試幾多點???

I think HSI should take the rally to near 20000 first and correct from there. Likely back to 17000. Below 15000 is unlikey only if you hear very shocking bad news. I'm not saying the market is in bull or recovery but the reasons below

- 35% of HSI is H-Shares, with global investing trying to invest into China. Hong Kong market is the most liquid place. i.e. B shares you have to convert CNY which take times, A shares are restricted and A50 is only structured product of A-shares (i.e. if the issuer of these structure goes bankrupted, you get nothing like the lehman case)

- Very few countries have growth currently (i.e China, India, Indonesia, and etc). And with most potential for public investors, I think no doubt it would be China at the moment.

- China and Hong Kong total market capitalization is only slight more than 10% of the world. So there is no alternative to invest and the money rush in, the impact is big.

You can refer to my blog for the details.
http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/rchau_2000/index?l=f&id=6

Hope this help
Cheers

17000就開始再升但外來資金一走就9800~11000

我覺得... 恆指同道指都有下跌既壓力, 假如美國經濟衰退得難以估計, 金融業會有可能面對第二波...

道指最近形成了重要的雙頂, 並且跌破其上升趨勢通道. 一般來說, 這種跌破過後會出現進一步下探, 看起來似乎道琼斯指數將跌入7,400-7,500區域. 相信恆指難逃一劫...

如果作為一個投資者, 我意見你如果想增持股票, 你可以分散風險在對沖的黃金身上... 因為就算股票跌, 黃金都會有升值的空間, 有興趣了解更多的話, 可以聯絡我呀~~~ msn: [email protected]

14500點20%左右基本位，但人的心魔就難測了！