new sir or yoki sir恆指會跌回萬四點嗎 ?

I think 17000 today is pretty fair value, not that I think the market is in recovery yet, but reasons below,
- When HSI down to about 10000 and so did the rest of the world
- This created two things, 1) Partial equities to cash & 2) partial diminishing value due to price drop
- The money pulls out from the equities need to park somewhere (i.e.deposit, bonds, equities, hedge funds and etc)
- Return of money markets and bonds are not attractive with low interest rate nowaday
- Many bad news for hedge funds and not many people are interested in it.
- Global market is slowing down and very few countries are still growing
- So you have very few choice to invest into for equities if you are looking for growth countries (i.e. China, India Brazil and etc)
- China A share is pretty restricted, are foriegn investor can only buying the "indirect" A-Share investment like the A50 which is structured products underwrited by many big banks (there are risk)
- Alternative would be the H-shares (HSI have about 35% index component of H-Shares)
- How big is the China and HK market? As of today, China market is about 7.6% of the world market capital and HK 4.7%. And at US 30.6% and Euorpe 25%
- So HK and China market still very small, if investors money rush into HK for H shares, we are taking about a lot of money here.
- Also, the people already discounterd the expectations into the market price, so not if we see surprise expectation (i.e. things are out of control in the world & China and etc), then we see big impact to the H-Shares.
-Correction, maybe not as much as we would think it should so safer to start at 16000, for steps of 1000 for 3 steps if you target 14000 as I think below 15000 is unlikely if there is no surprise news coming out.

Hope this help
Cheers

1. 好多分析員話係資金市，即係有錢入嚟買嘢，但係你唔會知佢幾時提款。
2. 有評論認為牛市一期已經開始，而股票市場會走先於經濟數據─咁咪即係炒預期！你希望嘅嘢唔一定出現，不過你唔希望出現嘅嘢就好多時會發生。
3. 美國奧巴馬宣佈唔希望靠大陸買國債，咁會意味經濟進一步收縮。加稅同向高資產存戶伸手會迫使購買力回歸市場。
4. 下一輪應該係天然資源同環保項目受惠。我個人認為個市由14,000點去到17,500點升得太急，而所有經濟數據唔足以支持咁樣嘅市況。牛市一期應該係投資者信心慢慢恢復，而唔應該好似支箭咁升，好明顯係人為炒作！
5. 在面對咁唔明朗既經濟環境，我會建議人地番鄉下買地耕田─起碼自給自足！

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