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Q1.
A speculator is someone who "buys low and sells high"(我諗即係中間人 OR 買黃牛飛的人?!) to make a profit. He os not a final user of the good.
(a) How will a speculator's activity in the oil market affect the demand and /or supply of oil during period if expected relative high prices and periods if expected relative low prices? ( assume he does not attemp to create false signals. He just tries to make money by guessing future oil prices)
(b) Based on yr ans in (a), do u think speculators will make prices more stable or less stable?
(c) Now suppose a speculator tries to create an expectation that oil is in relatively GREATER scarcity ( when in fact he does not really believe this is the case); and then when the price rises to a certain level, he selld in previous holdings in oil. Will his activities make prices more stable or less stable?
(d) Comment on whether activties describled in (c) will succeed.
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2008-11-13 9:14 am
回答 (2)
2008-11-13 12:43 pm
✔ 最佳答案
a) When a speculator expects price to be strong, he will buy oil contracts.If he expects price to be lower, he will sell oil contracts. His action only
changes the price of the oil contracts. This does NOT change the actual
demand and supply of oil itself. In general, high oil price mean demand
of oil is high (or supply is low). Low price means depand of oil is low
(or supply is high)
b) Hard to say. Speculators at times will make prices more volatile than
it should be. Having said that, speculators provide a competitive market
to trade oil. Without a competitive market, oil price could flatuate more.
c) Less stable. He will artifically manipulate the market to a level that's
not supported by the fundamental of oil prices.
d) The oil trading market is huge. For him to be successful, he will need
a lot of money to trade in sizable position in order to move the market.
Not very likely.
Good luck.
2009-04-15 2:03 am
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