TS 18W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD AND A BIT
POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER THE CONTINUED STEERING
INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE NORTH. THEREAFTER,
A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER NORTH-
EASTERN CHINA WILL INDUCE A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE AS
THE TROUGH PROGRESSESS EASTWARD. TS 18W IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD A MORE POLEWARD TRACK AND DECREASE ITS FORWARD TRACK
SPEED DURING THE TAU 24 TO TAU 48 PERIOD AS A RESULT OF THIS
INDUCED WEAKNESS. AS RIDGING REBUILDS TO THE NORTH IN THE WAKE
OF THIS MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AFTER TAU 48, TS 18W IS EXPECTED
TO RESUME ITS WESTWARD MARCH. HOWEVER, THE NUMERICAL MODELS
SHOW SIGNIFICANT SPREAD DURING THIS EARLY TO MEDIUM TERM
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH NOGAPS, GFDN, GFS, WBAR, AND JGSM SHOWING
A SHARPER POLEWARD TRACK INTO THE DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS DEPICT
A DISTINCTLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A SMALL POLEWARD STAIRSTEP OCCURRING
BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 48 AS THE TROPICAL STORM NEARS THE
WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE. BASED ON CURRENT ANALYSIS OF
THE STEERING FLOW AND GIVEN THE POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE MAIN
MODEL GROUPING, WHICH HAS THUS FAR DEPICTED AN ERRONEOUS
POLEWARD TRACK FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS, THE CURRENT
FORECAST FAVORS THE WESTWARD-OUTLYING ECMWF AND UKMET MODEL
SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK FOR BOTH THE SHORT
TERM AND EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS. TS 18W IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY STEADILY OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS
VERY FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND THE ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW
LAYER DEVELOPS ALOFT.