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the first is more correct.
The main difference here is the tense used-- the first one uses present continuous and the second one uses simple present.

If you are familiar with the tenses, you should know that the simple present is most appropriate for facts, e.g. The sun rises in the East.

Present continuous tense is hence more appropriate, since this sentence is more of an opinion rather than a fact. It also shows that the ongoing activity of the recession-- it's a gradual rather than abrupt drop.