急問#330思捷環球

思捷環球半年純利增長25%至64.5億元，期內盈利增長僅兩成半，低於市場預期，被大行調低評級，股價大挫約兩成，股價急跌而成交激增，業績固然不理想，而更大的殺傷力，是展望不明，歐元走勢轉弱，加上經濟放緩，支撐思捷盈利的兩大支柱頓失，股價上周四洗倉式下跌近兩成，周五仍未跟隨大市反彈回升，是最弱勢的藍籌股。
主席坦言對前景有所保留，面對經濟不景，將不考慮收購，以便將資源應付現有業務，派發特別股息，亦是挽留股東之法。批發業務7月增長已降至個位數字，這是思捷的王牌，如未能維持相當增長，整體業務殊不樂觀。
思捷雖以批發為主，最終仍看零售市場的銷售，在不同的經濟環境下，零售的表現可能差異甚大，在經濟好景時，思捷的PE可以高達25至30倍，形勢逆轉，PE評價亦將大幅滑落。思捷一向為基金愛股，評價急降，爭相拋售，周四成交4326萬股，較上日大增12倍，股價瀉落18%，似有洗倉味道。思捷現價65元，PE 12.5倍，更重要的是主席既有保留，中年度表現如何，基金撤出，短線避之則吉！
技術走勢方面，有機會出現技術性反彈，但就算出現反彈都未必長久，因為有很多"蟹貨"都會見反彈就走，所以並不樂觀，趁反彈沽出($70)，無為死守，攞番D本錢再玩過，不宜加碼消耗實力及鬥心。

Hahaha, u say espirit will drop down to 40ish?!?
U must be kidding!!!
Hey, do some serious homework about espirit & its rivals la!!!
Its one of the top profit making brand in its game, there is an old chinese saying like this................"a sinking wreck still got its fair worth of cast iron"
So those fund managers will pick up on it again after this big "slash"
in espirit's share prices.
Hey, thats how those "in the know" makes big $$$$$$
I'll say "hang on" there but don't buy anymore unless u really do have some serious spare cash flow.
I had personally made a large purchase this afternoon & will sell as soon as I get an interesting enough return.
I'm in for $$$$$$ so I'll take my very well calculated risk.
Make sure u have a damage control though!!!!!
Espirit had been earning me a fair amount of $$$$$$ everytime when the market is as rough as it is nowadays :)
Sometimes , u just got to trust ur home work & control ur EQ when things get rough!~!

2008-08-29 02:37:44 補充：
ps, I mean I"m in for quick $$$$$$ NOT long term investment in espirit...................not now anyway!!!

你話升番上70元就有可能！
不過，我建議你都係反彈走左佢！可能會越跌越深！
下面4個可能可以令思捷環球越跌越深！

1. 歐洲經濟下半年開始放緩
2. EURO 大插水！ 一個月唔見左10%以上！
3. 思捷昨日係股東大會都唔睇好前景！
4. 記住而家係熊市！

2008-08-28 19:47:32 補充：
我絕對唔同意 1號果位仁兄講，我相信佢都係聽其他人講。蝕錢就係你，佢冇損失！