PE ratio

2008-05-05 2:12 am
are market value per share and the earnings per share the only determinants of PE ratio? and why some stocks have high PE while other stocks have low PE?
In an efficient market, are low PE stocks cheap stocks?

thz
更新1:

To: 【 集思廣益譜新章 】 could youplease explain the last question a little more...i dont quite get it..thank you~!

回答 (3)

2008-05-05 5:15 am
✔ 最佳答案
Yes. Some stock has a high PE ratio while some has a low PE ratio.
Stock with a high PE means the stock price relative to its earning capability is quite high. In an efficient market, technically speaking, the stock price will go down to make it more rational if there is no significant change in its earning. Vice versa, low PE stock may means it is cheaper and is a best buy.
But, one of the most crucial issue we usually measured the PE ratio is with Market Stock Price but relative to its Historical Earning. This historical earning is a past history or record. There maybe some business with a high contibution ( Earnings ) to the company and thus it's profit in the near future. In this case, the PE will goes down as E is bigger. That is the situation of an effecient market where the buyers and sellers know the situation of that stock. A good sensitivity of its price relative to its market demand.
A good measurement of a stock's level of PE is the industry average PE.
2008-05-08 5:15 pm
To:【 集思廣益譜新章 】
could you please explain the last question a little more..i dont quite get it..thx
2008-05-06 6:21 am
Pe = 每股股價 /每股盈利
若果a公司的盈利 = b公司的盈利,那麽pe低者 為平的。
但是在現實世界高pe及低pe都有某程度的支持,所以很難作出估計,例如:
1.盈利分經常性收益及非經常性收益,已經影響盈利能力,
2.經營前景,例如,國企股及香港的藍籌股,pe都有30 同15的差異,因為對於前景的預測不同。
3.業務的差異,銀行股如匯豐銀行等有 10倍左右的pe,又如科網股阿里巴巴有近幾百倍的pe,
4.結構性的差異,如公司轉型或盈利改變,一開始可能有幾百倍的差異。
5.替代價值的差異,例如一間公司的時期不同或股票周期不同,如公用股在大跌後會受追捧。
其中一點例如盈利的差異
1.特殊性收益 : 例如 :投資本額(非經常性業務)上升,投資公平值上升(物業價值上升) (可參考近年的地產股)
2.收購(收購後的利息成本,及不確定的盈利能力,例如:盈科收購電訊的巨額利息,但之前很難確定將來的盈利力的。
3.公司cut cost 如經濟不景減薪,或經濟向好加人工
所以短期下跌或上升,很難決定,
如有可參考 mp 一間公司的發展力,非參考盈利力。
但是一點的差異,中間又有好多點的差異,所以要判斷一間公司的pe是否值得,簡直接近套套邏輯一樣
因為 pe = 每股股價 / 每股盈利,
股價的上升反映出本身的價值觀念,即是人們主導價值觀的想法,盈利本身的價值也不過是一種非實質的數字(因為受影響很大的差異,觀看以上的論點)
所以以pe的測量根本是逆市場觀念的想法,
因為p(價值) = 各種因素的相加(如:市場預期,替代價值...
所以pe本身的參考是逆觀念的想法,本身也不存在的平貴的交易價值。
在我的角度,只不過是市場的情緒指標會較適合,難以來形像是公司的實質價值。因為公司的市場預期實質價值基本上已反映在市場上,更不可以評價為一間公司的平貴價值,否則同於套套邏輯,因為好的東西--貴 壞的東西 -->平,如果你可以根據pe決定平及貴,會違反市場的好壞觀念,慨念上是不可能存在的。

2008-05-09 19:53:50 補充:
這不可能成為理由,因為 pe = price / 每股盈利,但是價格應等於

供需求點
即是價值是 因為 相對不好導致需求低,需求低導致價格低,價格低導致pe低,那麽pe低反而是市場判斷是相對不好的結果,又點會是cheap

市場錯角
因為前景好,pe高,前景差導致pe低,所以一般人以為價格在低位,但這是前景的問題導致。
但因為市場經濟往往是向上的,可以參考近百年的股市。
可參考香港股市
1982 曾見 10以下pe 因為中英談判 股票約值 千多點
2001曾見 26以上pe ,因為科網熱 股票約值 18000點

所以很難以平來決定的
參考: 個人心得


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