美國次按對香港影響

You may have found that in the past few months 3988 has been moving up and down the range from $3 to $3.3x. So buying and selling at the target prices you set last time is a really good short-term strategy.

Also, the worst time seems to be gone. All bad news about sub-prime mortgages and even recession has been expected, and so although we can't expect a v-shape bounce back in the near future, buying 3988 at the current level is also acceptable for your long-term investment. But you have to understand that the current stock price is only "reasonable", and not " far under-priced", and when speculators turn optimistic again you will see mainland banks with less US assets (e.g. 939 and 1398) will go up much faster than 3988.

The problems in US can be very serious to Hong Kong export if the expected recession lasts too long and affects Europe and other countries. Luckily, Hong Kong depends more and more on mainland's development, and hopefully China's local consumption is enough to replace that of US.

Although the weak US dollars speeds up our inflation, it can help keep Hong Kong's export competitive, and it seems to pave the way for the linkage with RMB in the future.



2008-03-13 11:36:17 補充：
For your reference:

貝爾斯登將中行（３９８８）投資評級由「遜於大市」調高至「行業同步」，主要是基於其股價經歷近期下跌後，估值變得較合理。不過，... 該行亦相應將中行的Ｈ股目標價由４港元降至３﹒５５港元 http://hk.biz.yahoo.com/080307/239/2q6kw.html?s=3988.hk

it is good