拉尼娜現象(西班牙語:La Niña),又稱反聖嬰現象,是一種和厄爾尼諾現象相反的現象,因此用西班牙語聖嬰現象「厄爾尼諾」(El Niño)的陰性名詞拉尼娜(La Niña)來代表,厄爾尼諾是「男孩」的意思(定冠詞專指的男孩,意思是幼年的耶穌),拉尼娜是「女孩」的意思。
成因
沃爾克環流造成拉尼娜現象示意圖厄爾尼諾現象是太平洋中東部海水溫度變暖,拉尼娜現象就是太平洋中東部海水異常變冷的情況。東信風將表面被太陽曬熱的海水吹向太平洋西部,致使西部比東部海平面增高將近60厘米,西部海水溫度增高,氣壓下降,潮濕空氣積累形成颱風和熱帶風暴,東部底層海水上翻,致使東太平洋海水變冷。
太平洋上空的大氣環流叫做沃爾克環流,當沃爾克環流變弱時,海水吹不到西部,太平洋東部海水變暖,就是厄爾尼諾現象;但當沃爾克環流變得異常強烈,就產生拉尼娜現象。一般拉尼娜現象會隨著厄爾尼諾現象而來,出現厄爾尼諾現象的第二年,都會出現拉尼娜現象,有時拉尼娜現象會持續兩、三年。
1988年-1989年,1998年-2001年,2007年-2008年都發生了強烈的拉尼娜現象,令太平洋東部至中部的海水溫度比正常低了1至2℃,1995年-1996年,2006年年頭發生的拉尼娜現象則較弱。有的科學家認為,由於全球變暖的趨勢,拉尼娜現象有減弱的趨勢。
影響
拉尼娜現象會造成全球氣候的異常。影響包括使美國西南部和南美洲西岸變得異常乾燥,並使澳洲、印尼、馬來西亞和菲律賓等東南亞地區有異常多的降雨量,以及使非洲西岸及東南岸、日本和朝鮮半島異常寒冷。在西北太平洋區,熱帶氣旋影響的區域會比正常偏南和偏西。
預測方法
1876年-2004年SOI指數測量太平洋塔希提島和澳洲達爾文之間每月氣壓差別的漲落情況,叫作「南方濤動指數」或「南方震蕩指數」(SOI),紅色線代表月漲落情況,藍色代表年度平均漲落情況。如果是負值高峰表示太平洋信風強度減弱,太平洋中部和東部變暖,澳洲北部降雨減少,發生厄爾尼諾現象。正值高峰則表示信風增強,澳洲北部海域溫度增高,比往常更潮濕,發生拉尼娜現象。
La Niña
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Sea surface skin temperature anomalies in November 2007 showing La Niña conditionsLa Niña is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon similar to El Niño. During a period of La Niña, the sea surface temperature across the equatorial Eastern Central Pacific Ocean will be lower than normal by 0.5 °C. In the United States, an episode of La Niña is defined as a period of at least 5 months of La Niña conditions. The name La Niña originates from Spanish, meaning "the little girl", analogous to El Niño meaning "the little boy".
La Niña is the opposite of El Niño, where the latter corresponds instead to a higher sea surface temperature by a deviation of at least 0.5 °C. El Niño is famous due to its potentially catastrophic impact on the weather along both the Chilean and Australian coasts. Furthermore, La Niña is often preceded by a strong El Niño.
Effects of La Niña
Regional impacts of La Niña.La Niña causes mostly the opposite effects of El Niño, for example, El Niño would cause a dry period in the Midwestern U.S., while La Niña would typically cause a wet period in this area.
Also, the presence of La Niña is often quoted by the National Hurricane Center to be a cause for Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, partly because of higher sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic basin. The hurricane season of 1980 is also likely to have been influenced by that year's La Niña conditions.
Recent occurrences
There was a strong La Niña episode during 1988-1989. La Niña also formed in 1995, and in 1999-2000. The last La Niña was a minor one, and occurred 2000-2001. Currently, there is a moderate La Niña, which began developing in mid-2007. NOAA confirmed that a moderate La Niña developed in their November El Niño/Southern Oscillation Diagnostic Discussion, and that it will likely continue into 2008. According to NOAA, "Expected La Niña impacts during November – January include a continuation of above-average precipitation over Indonesia and below-average precipitation over the central equatorial Pacific. For the contiguous United States, potential impacts include above average precipitation in the Northern Rockies, Northern California, and in southern and eastern regions of the Pacific Northwest. Below-average precipitation is expected across the southern tier, particularly in the southwestern and southeastern states.
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