value-investing

2007-12-16 2:08 am
I have some doubt about value-investing. Why and how can one be sure that a share with NAV and intrinsic value higher than market value will guarantee a sure rise up to the fair value in the future. What if the intrinsic value remains undiscovered/undetected or off-set by other changes? What if supply always exceeds demand? It seems the success is based on the assumption that the intrinsic value of the under-valued share will sooner or later be detected.
Thanks.

回答 (1)

2007-12-17 12:23 am
✔ 最佳答案
1) Intrinsic value cannot be undiscovered because there are many value investing people out there and they will discover similar stocks that are undervalue and with great future ahead. After they decide to buy a stock, they are expecting the future of these companies are bright and taken in account the worst scenario, so they are unlikely to sell their stock due to daily good/bad news causing daily fluctuation and subsequently the price of these stocks will rise steadily. Furthermore when the market drop, the stock undervalued will have the greatest support & stands out from all the other falling stocks.
2) If a stock is good, Demand is always larger than supply. When Warren Buffett bought 857, do you see supply greater than demand? Furthermore, value invester like Warren Buffett base on ROE as well so if supply is too high, ROE percentage will not be good neither.

Hope that helps

2007-12-17 15:17:14 補充:
As a value investor, When I hold a stock, I don't really care what the stock price is like now or at least in the next half a year because it is just a short term fluctuation. Around 1999, many people thought Warren Buffett made a mistake of not investing in technology-related stocks,

2007-12-17 15:18:34 補充:
however by the time around 2003 he actually beat all the other firms who invested in technology-related stocks by at least 60%, so time will tell how you are doing in your investment. Short-term win doesn't mean much at all in value investor perspective.

2007-12-17 15:19:23 補充:
In regards to 133, although it drop more than we expect, my confident in 133 does not change because it is still undervalue & it shows more defensive than many other popular stocks.

2007-12-17 15:20:34 補充:
Yoki Sir did a comparison with some other popular stock previously and you can have a look at that for your information.http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/jw!wXywGT6BCRmiS5oBN7TvPr5tHw--/article?mid=2236P.S. please open a new topic if you want to ask more (due word limitation issue)


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