NZD一問

美元大勢向下ge情況下,
其實一眾貨幣個勢都係會升,
不過個升勢當然有分別啦...
個人認為7隻主要貨幣個排列會係咁
(升勢最弱) (升勢最強)
瑞士法郎<紐元<日圓<英鎊<歐羅<澳元<加元
可見其實我排紐元都排得幾低下...
原因其實主要都係因為利率問題...
投資最重要ge就係睇番市場e+ focus緊ge係咩野
暫時其實利率仍然主導住個市場走勢
雖然紐元e+做緊最高息,官方利率有成8.25%
但係已經講明左話唔會再加息,
故此其實投資者都唔會話再點樣大幅度投資落去紐元呢d利率前景差ge貨幣,
反之投資澳,歐加因為呢3隻貨幣都仲係有加息ge能力.
當然我都講過暫時佢仍然係向好,
畢竟如果美國繼續減息,
同紐元ge息差就會愈放愈大,
變左投資落去美元ge人就愈少,
但係如果單睇NZD,
我覺得佢今年or出年第一季內如果無咩超級有利ge消息
再破上次高位0.81ge機會就真係唔大啦

I think NZD will go up but the speed would be slower than AUD or EUR. The reasons are that inflation risk is lower than those in Australia and Euroland, NZD will cutinterest rate. Second, New Zealand will consider NZD is too strong at this level and intervention may be possible, but no such thinkings on Australia and Euroland. However, weak trend of USD is still here, NZD will appreciate but the speed would be slower than AUD and EUR.