格林斯潘 Alan Greenspan
Greenspan and the housing bubble
Following the attacks on September 11, 2001, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to reduce the federal funds rate from 3.5% to 3.0%.[16] Then, after the accounting scandals of 2002, the Fed dropped the federal funds rate from the current 1.25% to 1.00%.[17] Greenspan acknowledged that this drop in rates would have the effect of leading to a surge in home sales and refinancing.
"Besides sustaining the demand for new construction, mortgage markets have also been a powerful stabilizing force over the past two years of economic distress by facilitating the extraction of some of the equity that homeowners have built up over the years."[18]
However, Greenspan's policies of adjusting interest rates to historic lows contributed to a housing bubble in the US. The Federal Reserve acknowledges the connection between lower interest rates, higher home values, and the increased liquidity the higher home values bring to the overall economy.
"Like other asset prices, house prices are influenced by interest rates, and in some countries, the housing market is a key channel of monetary policy transmission." —Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, September 2005.[19]
Furthermore, in a speech on February 23, 2004, Greenspan suggested that lenders should offer to home purchasers a greater variety of "mortgage product alternatives" other than traditional fixed-rate mortgages.[20] Greenspan also praised the rise of the subprime mortgage industry and the tools with which it uses to assess credit-worthiness in an April 2005 speech:
"Innovation has brought about a multitude of new products, such as subprime loans and niche credit programs for immigrants. Such developments are representative of the market responses that have driven the financial services industry throughout the history of our country … With these advances in technology, lenders have taken advantage of credit-scoring models and other techniques for efficiently extending credit to a broader spectrum of consumers. … Where once more-marginal applicants would simply have been denied credit, lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately. These improvements have led to rapid growth in subprime mortgage lending; indeed, today subprime mortgages account for roughly 10 percent of the number of all mortgages outstanding, up from just 1 or 2 percent in the early 1990s."[21]
The subprime mortgage industry collapsed in March 2007, with many of the largest lenders filing for bankruptcy protection in the face of spiraling foreclosure rates. For these reasons, Greenspan has been criticized for his role in the rise of the housing bubble and the subsequent problems in the mortgage industry,[22][23] as well as "engineering" the housing bubble itself:
"It was the Federal Reserve-engineered decline in rates that inflated the housing bubble … the most troublesome aspect of the price runup is that many recent buyers are squeezing into houses that they can barely afford by taking advantage of the lower rates available from adjustable-rate mortgages. That leaves them fully exposed to rising rates." —BusinessWeek, July 19, 2004, Is A Housing Bubble About To Burst?[24]