More hurricanes ahead Forecasters predict a more active than normal season, with as many as 10 hurricanes?

Most of the time when we are experiencing a La Nina ( Which means the ocean waters are cooler than normal forms near the equator in the Pacific Ocean ) usually means an active hurricane season. For example 2005. 28 named storms. A very active hurricane season. Last year there was no hurricanes that hit the United States which the ocean water temps were warmer than normal near the equator in the Pacific Ocean. Hope this helps.

They look at past decades of patterns. Oh, and they are partnered with oil refineries, so this news will give them permission to keep raising the prices now to prepare for the refineries being blown away from all these hurricanes we're sure to get.

We'll see, last year we were supposed to be bombarded with 7 Katrina size storms. Pah!

It's really hard to predict anything. But for hurricane prediction is getting better over the years. Now it’s a true science. The Forecasters look from what over the last decade the trend has been. Also look at other factors, Like El Neio in the Pacific Ocean. A huge factor the Ocean temperature. The cooler temperature means less storms, the worm water is like gas in fire. As far as predicting rain for the coming weeks, good luck A lot has to do with experience of the Materialist has, and the knowledge of his location. With the new computer models available now the prediction is getting better, but when rain is forecasted the for your area. The Materialist states there is a 40% change of rain, which means for your forecast area 40% of the area has a change of rain. Any one with common since when any rain is forecasted for your area you have a 50-50 change. The Temperature for cast is harder. The forecaster looks to change in the wind, the way the Jet stream is shifting how the Gulf Stream is feeding moisture into the fronts. We know from Common since when a cold from is bearing down form Canada the storm will bring colder temperatures, fronts from the Pacific Ocean bring milder temps and fronts from Mexico usually bring warmer temps. This is not always true though. During a weather forecast on TV you will see lines of pressure this helps the forecaster track the fronts as the cross the country. After the front passes when the clouds clear the temperatures drop more because the heat from the day is not trapped by the clouds, same is opposite during the day a cloudy day blocks the Sun keeping the temperature down. Bigger cities can worm up more than the country due to all the concrete. E-mail me if you have any other questions.

I believe they are based on statistical methods. First, they have to identify a certain set of "predictors". For example, I would guess sea surface temperature is a key factor. So, they examine the historical records of sea surface temp at this time of the year and the subsequent number of hurricanes of that year. They find out a statistical correlation. Base on that correlation, they compare the SST of this year at this time to the relationship to predict how many hurricanes are likely for this summer. The whole idea is not much different from setting an insurance policy. Insurance company bases on demographic and can assess how likely a client to die within a certain period of time. However, this statiscal relation is no good in actually predicting whether this client will die next year. Still, the statistical method is very useful. Does it make sense to you?