中信銀行 為何A 股同H 股這麼大的分別?H股會否追落後?

2007-05-11 9:55 pm
中信銀行<0998.HK>為何A 股同H 股這麼大的分別?H股會否追落後?

回答 (4)

2007-05-12 8:40 pm
✔ 最佳答案
國內A股較香港H股有這麼大的分別主要是:

1)由於國內資金過份充裕引致供求失衡
國內過剩的資金去追逐有限的股票,在求過於供的情況底下,只要繼續有資金湧入股市,股價便會不斷被推高。

2)AH股不能亙通。
理論上A股和H股的價值是相同的,但本質上是有分別的, 就是A股只能在國內買賣而H股就只能在香港買賣,就算同一股份在兩地出現差價時中港雙方也不能作套戥,這才會產生差價。就如長江三陝大壩將上游的江水閘住,才會產生水位高低。

3)A股不能沽空,H股可以
基於這個原因國內投資者只能在升市才能獲利,這無形中會使人相信只要股民團結一致,只買不沽, 資金不斷流入,股價必升,買股必賺的理論。

應否追落後就要看它是不是落後於其他同類形的股份,而不是比較同一股份A股的股價,這是不切實際的。就好似一個金山橙在國內賣$20,而在香港賣$15這並不代表香港的金山橙抵買!要比較其他橙甚至其他水果才能判斷香港的金山橙是否抵買。因為有錢吾一定要買金山橙食,可以買蘋果,香蕉,就如買股吾一定要 買中信銀行,可以買其他銀行甚至其他種類的股票!

至於中信銀行是否值得投資就要研究她的數據及前景,上面幾位大佬已經作了分析,這裡也不再多談了。

希望幫你選中心水股啦!
2007-05-12 1:37 am
I think the priice of H股 will remain $5.6~$6.5 this year...with PE 45~55. And A股 will drop to $7~$8 whenthe first financial report is out...

For the first fiancial annual report, if the net profit growth over 100%
the target price can go up to $8 with PE 30~35(like 3328)..On the other way round,the profit growth less than 30%,which means It is still over priced. H share will remain $5.6~$6.5..
2007-05-12 1:28 am
為何A 股同H 股這麼大的分別?It&#39;s because most A shares are bought by a large number of individual investors in China. They don&#39;t follow reason and keep on pushing the price high.
H股會否追落後?H shares are more reasonable than A shares. Sooner or later there will be a big correction or crash in A shares to lower its price.
2007-05-11 10:12 pm
all china banks A & H have prices different, this is very abnormal, I think A will drop and H will rise to equilize their prices later, but nobody know when it will be.


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