F.3 Math 急

2007-03-17 8:01 pm
Find the expected value期望值 for this case:

A card is drawn from a pack of 52 playing cards (without Jokers).
A player has to guess whether it is a spade /a heart/a diamond /or a club.
Th player is offered the odds of 1 to 3(賠率 1賠3) if his guess is correct ,otherwise the player loses.

回答 (1)

2007-03-17 8:17 pm
✔ 最佳答案
actually, the expected value is normally base on how much the player bet expect some special case(fair game).
Let the player bet $N. If the player win(probability is 1/4), he/she will win $2N, if he/she loses(probability is 3/4), he/she will lose $N(-$N)
so the expected value=[1/4*$2N+3/4(-$N)]=$2N/4-$3N/4= -$N/4
So in this case, the expected value is -$N/4 if he/she bet $N.(the negative value mean he/she will loses -$N/4 per game averagely)


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